US May CPI year-on-year rate, unadjusted for seasonal factors, falls below market expectations; SHFE tin prices maintain a slight downward trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Morning Tin News on June 12, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) stabilized after a slight pullback during the night session, closing at 264,230 yuan/mt, down 0.37% from the previous day.

Macro: (1) The US unadjusted CPI for May recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%. (Bearish ★) (2) Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," stated that the decline in car and clothing prices contributed to the core CPI reading for May coming in below expectations. Some forecasters had believed these two categories would show early tariff impacts in May. (Bearish ★) (3) Sixteen automakers have committed to standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs: ① The EU hopes to extend trade negotiations beyond the temporary suspension period set by Trump. ② Bessent: The Trump administration is willing to extend the current 90-day tariff suspension period beyond July 9, as long as "good faith" is demonstrated in negotiations. ③ Trump will hold multiple bilateral talks during the G7 Summit. ④ US customs revenue reached a record $23 billion in May, with a nearly fourfold year-on-year increase. ⑤ Lutnick: Deals will be reached one after another.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan has tightened. As June begins, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices have returned to the 260,000 yuan threshold, most downstream enterprises have seen a decrease in orders and a weakening of purchase willingness.

Spot Market: Overall trading remains sluggish. Some traders reported transactions of around 10 mt, mostly for just-in-time procurement, with a small number of low-priced orders placed. Most downstream enterprises reported a slight decline in overall orders since entering June.